The world of work is changing and this is happening more rapidly than most of us can possibly imagine. For some, it is about not having time to take notice, for others the prospects are too alarming or irrelevant. For many, they simply don’t have access to the information.
As of June 2017, 49{01332a80e2e652688e18927fa9a6162580960d47bc08263a3993439d666dcd52} of the world’s population still does not have internet access.
The next decade will bring a watershed of employment changes. We are on the cusp of the technological revolution. The massive investments already made in AI, Robotics and machine learning will start to pay real dividends in the next decade.
China alone in 2017 outlined its vision to be the world leader in AI by 2030. They are investing multi-billions to achieve this.
If history has taught us anything, for society to flourish, those benefits must be for the many, not just a few.
Jobs will be lost and created, however, there is no time to waste worrying about if robots or software programs are going to replace human workers—this will distract us. The priority must be to develop strategies and implement policies to help manage the transition of worker’s skills and importantly, their mental resilience.
This can’t be seen as some burdensome responsibility, but a mission by all stakeholders, governments, businesses, and individuals. Importantly it must include, not exclude the vulnerable.
In Australia, our most vulnerable have been male blue-collar workers. They were the first to lose their jobs when technological solutions become cheaper than their labour. There was little consideration given to transitioning of these workers into other jobs. The consequences for many of those men and their families were devastating.
Economist, Andrew Charlton, highlights the consequences of such ineptitude. His data states that:
Over the past 25 years, 1 in 10 men who lost their job due to big technological shifts never worked again. Today 4 out of 10 unskilled men don’t participate in the workforce.
Clearly managing the next transition is not going to be easy. According to a McKinsey report, worker transition is likely to be more difficult than in any other time in history. Underemployment is likely to rise in the short term. Wage growth will continue to decline and there will be an increased polarisation of the haves and the have-nots.
There is no universal answer about how every organisation or country needs to approach the transition. However, there is no doubt action is required now, and those actions must be carefully considered to ensure the most effective transition of worker’s skills.
India, for example, has 25 million low wage drivers. The technology may be available (and car manufacturers may lobby for an accelerated implementation) however if the government of India allowed rapid implementation of driverless vehicles, say at the same rate as China, the disruption may be devastating for that society.
To help manage this transition, Australia’s governments and businesses must invest in active and progressive labour market policies. It will not happen by osmosis. Time is pressing and there is no shame in taking other countries or companies progressive training policies and massaging them into our own.
Denmark’s government spends 1.7{01332a80e2e652688e18927fa9a6162580960d47bc08263a3993439d666dcd52} of GDP on training.
Google has trained 3 million Europeans in digital skills
E-Bay has partnered with a city in Ohio to help to build small business capability.
We are being programmed to believe insecure labour—gig work—is the path to the future, with little, if any, debate. In reality the term, ‘gig economy’ only took hold after the 2008 GFC and yet, according to a 2017 McKinsey study, it is estimated 20 to 30{01332a80e2e652688e18927fa9a6162580960d47bc08263a3993439d666dcd52} of US and European workforces are already engaged in the gig economy – this could reach 50{01332a80e2e652688e18927fa9a6162580960d47bc08263a3993439d666dcd52}. Australia is trending the same way.
If this continues to become a reality, safety nets will be critical. Some are already being experimented with like, Universal Basic Income. Other support structures could include providing a secure electronic portable app. It would act like a secure electronic wallet that could transfer entitlements, yet to be agreed, and provide authorised qualifications.
Training is on everyone’s lips, however, the group of people who miss out on training opportunities are the ones employed in the gig economy. Even contractors who work for a company for a year are mostly not considered eligible for training. Companies and individuals in the future could be obliged to invest in on-going learning, this too could be captured in the electronic wallet.
There are so many opportunities to ensure an effective transition of worker’s skills and provide equality in our communities. However, it will require focused effort, collaboration and more importantly, passion to make it happen.
Someone famously said it is better to fix the roof while the sun is shining. 2018 is predicted to have synchronised world growth of 4{01332a80e2e652688e18927fa9a6162580960d47bc08263a3993439d666dcd52}. Perhaps there is no better time than now, while the world is on an economic high, to invest in the future of workers.
